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          【原版雜志閱讀】19期 Day 1:(The economist)A new age of space exploration is beginning






          The next 50 years in space

          A new age of space exploration is beginning

          It will need the rule of law and a system of arms control to thrive

           

          1. The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.

          知識點:

          1. plant one’s foot on the surface 留下腳印

          補充:My brother planted himself on the sofa in front of the television

          補充:Who planted these rumours?

           

          set one’s foot on the surface of the Moon

           

          (動詞搭配—名詞并列—動詞并列—形容詞—形容詞修飾名詞-副詞修飾動詞形容詞)


          2. inspire awe, pride and wonder around the world 引起了全世界的敬畏、驕傲和驚嘆

          套用:The moment when someone did something inspired awe, pride and wonder around + 范圍

          e.g. The moment when Ms. Laura, a 60 year-old lady,  dived into water without hesitation to save/rescue the drowning child inspired awe, pride and wonder.

           

          原版文章節選:Upon receiving the quilts for her son and her husband, Betty Skolasky said she felt “pride and awe of the beauty of the quilts.”

           

          3. contrive /k?n?tra?v/ v 巧妙安排;謀劃,策劃; will— 設法用意志力驅使;決意 If you will something to happen, you try to make it happen by the power of your thoughts.

           

          4. sooner rather than later 越早越好

           

          5. aberration /??b.??re?.??n/ n. (暫時的)脫離常規;反?,F象;異常行為

          句子結構分析:The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities.

           

          ? 同位語:a goal

          ? 后置定語:achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities.

          1568780552(1)

          will n. 遺囑; will + 動詞; will 實義動詞

          rather than 而不是—other than 除了;

           

          2. The next 50 years will look very different (see Science section). (1)Falling costs, (2)new technologies, (3)Chinese and Indian ambitions, and (4)a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.

          知識點:

          1. promise to be good, exciting, etc.

          e.g. It promises to be a really exciting game. 預計這會是一場非常精彩的比賽。

           

          ? tourism

          ? better communication networks

          ? mineral exploitation

          ? mass transportation

           

          什么叫?—分類?—結構

          將來1: If + should + 動詞原形,would/could/should/might + do.

          If I should go to Mars tomorrow, I would bring a book.  

          — Should I go to Mars tomorrow, I would bring a book.

           

           

          3. The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.

          thus far—so far 到目前為止

           

          4. Second, the private sector has come of age. Between 1958 and 2009 almost all of the spending in space was by state agencies, mainly NASA and the Pentagon. In the past decade private investment has risen to an annual average of $2bn a year, or 15% of the total, and it is set to increase further. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket firm, made 21 successful satellite launches last year and is valued at $33bn. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, sells off $1bn-worth of his shares in the company each year to pay for Blue Origin, a space venture. Virgin Galactic plans to go public this year at a valuation of $1.5bn. As well as capital and ideas, the private sector provides much greater efficiency. According to NASA , developing SpaceX’s Falcon rockets would have cost the agency $4bn; it cost SpaceX a tenth of that.

          知識點:

          1. come to age  成熟

          英釋義-If something has come of age, it has reached its full successful development.

           

          2. In the past decade private investment has risen to an annual average of $2bn a year, or 15% of the total

           

          1568780955(1)


          3. be set to do something 注定會…一定會

          4. falcon /?fɑ?l.k?n/ n. 獵鷹

           

          5. Two new commercial models exist or are within reach: the big business of launching and maintaining swarms of communications satellites in low orbits and the niche one of tourism for the rich. The coming year will almost certainly see Virgin and Blue Origin flying passengers on sub-orbital excursions that offer the thrill of weightlessness and a view of the curved edge of Earth against the black sky of space. Virgin claims it might carry almost 1,000 wealthy adventurers a year by 2022. SpaceX is developing a reusable “Starship” larger and much more capable than its Falcons. Yusaku Maezawa, a Japanese fashion mogul, has made a down-payment for a Starship trip around the Moon; he intends to go with a crew of artists as early as 2023.

          知識點:

          mogul /?mo?.ɡ?l/ 權貴

           

           

          全文朗讀


          全文及參考翻譯:


          The next 50 years in space

          A new age of space exploration is beginning

          It will need the rule of law and a system of arms control to thrive

           

          The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.

          The next 50 years will look very different (see Science section). Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.

          The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.

          Second, the private sector has come of age. Between 1958 and 2009 almost all of the spending in space was by state agencies, mainly nasa and the Pentagon. In the past decade private investment has risen to an annual average of $2bn a year, or 15% of the total, and it is set to increase further. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket firm, made 21 successful satellite launches last year and is valued at $33bn. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, sells off $1bn-worth of his shares in the company each year to pay for Blue Origin, a space venture. Virgin Galactic plans to go public this year at a valuation of $1.5bn. As well as capital and ideas, the private sector provides much greater efficiency. According to nasa, developing SpaceX’s Falcon rockets would have cost the agency $4bn; it cost SpaceX a tenth of that.

          Two new commercial models exist or are within reach: the big business of launching and maintaining swarms of communications satellites in low orbits and the niche one of tourism for the rich. The coming year will almost certainly see Virgin and Blue Origin flying passengers on sub-orbital excursions that offer the thrill of weightlessness and a view of the curved edge of Earth against the black sky of space. Virgin claims it might carry almost 1,000 wealthy adventurers a year by 2022. SpaceX is developing a reusable “Starship” larger and much more capable than its Falcons. Yusaku Maezawa, a Japanese fashion mogul, has made a down-payment for a Starship trip around the Moon; he intends to go with a crew of artists as early as 2023.

          Such possibilities could see the annual revenues of the space industry double to $800bn by 2030, according to ubs, a bank. Still further in the future, space development could remake how humanity lives. Mr Musk hopes to send settlers to Mars. Mr Bezos, the richest man in the world, wants to see millions of people making a living on space stations, perhaps before Armstrong’s footprint marks its centenary.

          At a time when Earth faces grim news on climate change, slow growth and fraught politics, space might seem to offer a surprising reason for optimism. But it is neither a panacea nor a bolthole. And to realise its promise, a big problem has to be resolved and a dangerous risk avoided. The big problem is developing the rule of law (see International section). The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 declares space to be “the province of all mankind” and forbids claims of sovereignty. That leaves lots of room for interpretation. America says private firms can develop space-based resources; international law is ambiguous.

          Who would have the best claim to use the ice at the poles of the Moon for life support? Should Martian settlers be allowed to do what they like to the environment? Who is liable for satellite collisions? Space is already crowded—over 2,000 satellites are in orbit and nasa tracks over 500,000 individual pieces of debris hurtling at velocities of over 27,000km an hour.

          Such uncertainties magnify the dangerous risk: the use of force in space. America’s unparalleled ability to project force on Earth depends on its extensive array of satellites. Other nations, knowing this, have built anti-satellite weapons, as America has itself (see Briefing). And military activity in space has no well-tested protocols or rules of engagement.

          America, China and India are rapidly increasing their destructive capabilities: blinding military satellites with lasers, jamming their signals to Earth or even blowing them up, causing debris to scatter across the cosmos. They are also turning their armed forces spaceward. Mr Trump plans to set up a Space Force, the first new branch of the armed forces since the air force was created in 1947. On the eve of the annual Bastille Day military parade on July 14th Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, also announced the formation of a new space command.

          In Heaven as it is on Earth

          It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soyabeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems.

           

          五十年前尼爾·阿姆斯特朗(Neil Armstrong)在月球上留下腳印的那一刻引發了全世界的敬畏、驕傲和驚嘆。本報曾撰文道:“從今天開始,人類可以依自己的心愿、憑自己的才智,走進宇宙的任意角落......人類必然能登上各個星球,今天看來無需長久等待?!钡聦嵅⒎侨绱?。那次登月是非常規行動,目標并非登月本身,而是要彰顯美國的強大實力。這一點一旦表明,便無需再重復。迄今為止,全球只有571人進入過軌道;自1972年以來,人類深入太空的距離不比從得梅因到芝加哥遠多少。

          未來50年的情況看起來將大不一樣。成本下降,新技術出現,中國和印度雄心勃勃,新一代企業家涌現,都預示著一個太空開發大膽開拓的新時代。幾乎可以肯定的是,這將讓富人實現太空旅游,為大眾帶來更好的通信網絡;長遠而言,還可能涉及礦產開采甚至大眾運輸。太空將變得更像是地球的延伸——不僅僅是政府的競技場,也有企業和私人力量的較量。但要實現這些美好愿景,世界需要建立一套法律體系來管理太空,無論是在和平時期,還是在萬一發生戰爭時。

          迄今為止,人類向太空的拓展一直側重于服務地球上的活動——主要是用于廣播和導航的衛星通信。如今,兩個方面正在發生變化。首先,地緣政治正助力推動人類的太空探索超越近地軌道的“淺灘”,向深空進發。中國計劃在2035年前實現載人登月。特朗普政府希望美國人能在2024年再次踏足月球。因為成本下降,這類耀武揚威的代價較以往更能承受。按現值計算,當年的阿波羅計劃耗資數千億美元,現在只要幾百億美元。

          其次,私營部門已經有能力參與進來。從1958年至2009年,幾乎所有太空項目的支出都來自國家機構,主要是美國國家航空航天局(以下簡稱NASA)和五角大樓。過去十年里,私人投資已經增至平均每年20億美元,占總投資的15%,并且還將進一步上升。去年,伊隆·馬斯克的火箭公司SpaceX成功完成了21次衛星發射,市值達330億美元。亞馬遜的創始人杰夫·貝佐斯每年出售自己持有的10億美元公司股票,用于支持太空探索公司藍色起源(Blue Origin)。維珍銀河(Virgin Galactic)計劃今年上市,估值為15億美元。除了資本和創意,私營部門在效率方面高出一大截。NASA表示,它開發SpaceX那樣的獵鷹火箭要花40億美元,但SpaceX只花了十分之一。

          目前有兩種新商業模式已經建立或即將實現:向低軌道上發射并維護大量通信衛星的龐大業務,以及富人太空游的利基市場。幾乎可以肯定,未來的一年里我們會看到維珍銀河和藍色起源開展亞軌道載客旅行,讓旅客體驗失重的刺激,以及看到黑暗太空襯托下的地球弧形邊緣。維珍銀河聲稱到2022年每年或可運送近1000名富有探險者。SpaceX正在開發一種可重復使用的“星際飛船”,體積比其獵鷹火箭更大,性能強得多。日本時尚大亨前澤友作已經為一艘繞月星際飛船支付了定金,計劃最早于2023年和一群藝術家一起飛行。

          根據瑞銀的數據,這樣的前景有望讓航天業的年收入在2030年翻一番,達到8000億美元。在更長遠的未來,太空開發可能重塑人類的生活方式。馬斯克希望往火星移民。世界首富貝佐斯希望日后有數百萬人在太空站生活,也許在阿姆斯特朗登月百年紀念日之前就能做到。

          在地球面對氣候變化、經濟增長放緩和政治令人不安等各種壞消息之際,太空似乎成了一種出人意料的樂觀的理由。但它既非萬能藥,也非避難所。而要實現期望,必須解決一個大問題,避免一個大風險。這個大問題是建立法治。1967年生效的《外層空間條約》宣布太空為“全人類的領地”,禁止提出主權要求。該條約的解釋余地很大。美國稱私營企業可以開發太空資源,國際法也模棱兩可。

          誰最有資格使用月球兩極的水冰用于生命支持?應該允許火星移民者按自己的意愿改造火星環境嗎?誰該對衛星碰撞負責?太空已經擁擠——超過2000顆衛星在軌道上運行,此外NASA發現有超過50萬塊空間碎片正以超過每小時27,000公里的速度繞地飛行。

          這些不確定性強化了一大風險:太空動武。在地球上,美國無可比擬的軍事投送能力依賴其廣泛的衛星網絡。其他國家了解到這一點,已經部署了反衛星武器,美國自己也一樣。而太空軍事活動并沒有經驗證的協議或交戰規則。

          美國、中國和印度都在迅速加強毀滅能力:用激光致盲軍事衛星,干擾其發往地球的信號,甚至將其炸毀,導致碎片散布在宇宙中。這些國家還在發展太空武裝。特朗普計劃建立一支太空部隊,這是自1947年空軍成立以來美軍的第一個新分支。7月14日法國國慶日閱兵的前一天,法國總統馬克龍也宣布成立新的太空司令部。

          在天如在地

          把太空浪漫推崇為又一個“狂野西部”是錯誤的。太空并非什么供人類擺脫束縛、改天換命的無政府主義前沿世界。要實現人們對太空的美好愿景需要治理規則。在地球上連鋼筋和大豆的貿易規則都難達成一致的時候,這似乎要打上一個巨大的問號。但如果沒有規則,對地球之外所有探索的潛力至少要再等50年才能實現。而最壞的情況則是,太空會加劇地球的問題。


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